又中又英｜haven't the foggiest

Now that I am visiting Hong Kong, many friends have asked me about the US elections. They want to know if Donald Trump will win or if Joe Biden will defeat him again. Friends think my return to the US in 2021 gives me a special insight into US politics. I tell them I haven't the foggiest. To have a special insight means to have an especially clear and deep understanding of a complicated situation. If you haven't the foggiest, it means you don't have any knowledge about something.
The election is in November 2024. That's a year-and-a-half away. Even the best political pundits cannot predict the outcome of an election that's so far away. A political pundit is a political expert who gives opinions and information to the public, usually on TV. The latest poll by NBC, a US television company, shows a very divided country. Nearly 70 percent of Republican voters say they will support Trump in a primary election despite his recent criminal arrest and investigations into his past conduct. Only about 30 percent of Republican primary voters said they would support Trump's Republican rival Ron DeSantis, Florida's governor.
The Democratic Party won't have a primary election because Biden, as the president, has decided to run again. Almost 90 percent of Democrats say they will vote for Biden but 70 percent of all Americans, including 51 percent of Democrats, feel he should not run again. About 60 percent of all Americans, including a third of Republicans, don't want Trump to run again. Americans feel Biden and Trump are too old. I think so too and probably won’t vote next year.

现在我停留香港，许多朋友问我美国选举的事。他们想知道，唐纳德‧特朗普会否胜出，抑或祖‧拜登又再击败他？朋友们认为，我2021年回到美国，会令我对美国政治有一些特别的洞见（special insight）。我跟他们说 I haven’t the foggiest。To have a special insight是指对于复杂的情况有个特别清晰和深刻的见解与洞察力。若你 haven’t the foggiest，意即你对某事情一无所知、茫无头绪。
美国大选将于2024年11月举行，距今尚有一年半的时间。就是最优秀的政治权威（political pundits）也不能预测这么久以后的选举结果。A political pundit就是政治专家，会向大众发表个人意见与政治资讯，通常是电视的名嘴。美国国家广播公司NBC ，最近做了一次民意调查，反映美国意见分歧甚大。接近七成的共和党选民说，尽管特朗普最近遭到刑事拘捕及面临对其过往行为的调查，他们仍会在初选中支持他。只有约三成的共和党初选选民说他们会支持特朗普的共和党对手，佛罗里达州州长朗‧德桑蒂斯。
民主党将不会有初选，因为现任总统拜登决定竞逐连任。接近九成的民主党人说他们会投拜登一票，但有七成的美国人，当中包括百分之五十一的民主党人，说他不应参选。大约有六成的美国人，当中包括三分一的共和党人，并不希望特朗普再度参选。美国人说拜登和特朗普都太老了。我也是这么认为，下年亦很有可能不会投票了。

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Michael Chugani褚简宁
中译：七刻